Every few years, I find a book that is life changing. Since the turn of the millennium, I've read several, including Symbiotic Planet by Lynn Margulis, The Way of the Cell by Franklin Harold, & The Revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock.
Recently, I've started reading another one: The End of the Long Summer: Why We Must Remake Our Civilization to Survive on a Volatile Earth by Diane Dumanoski.
I already think it's one of the most important books written so far in the 21st century, & I'm planning a project based on it that has already begun to self-organize; it will include a reading seminar based on the book; an online component (for distance learning); other community reading discussions; & an invitation to Ms. Dumanoski to participate. I'll post details of that ASAP both here & on the Euglena Academy web site. (Please contact me if you're interested in details.)
So far, I've read chapters 1, 2, 4, 8 & parts of 7. (Yes, I often read non-fiction in a nonlinear sequence.) I have been repeatedly impressed with Ms Dumanoski's lucid writing style; her depth of understanding of the climate issue via systems sciences & Gaia theory; her thorough reference notes; & - perhaps most - her understanding of the extreme challenges that humans face this century during the largest climate change event in over 50 million years.
I am struck by her analysis of the issues & her firm assertion that we need to immediately start dealing with them, & the degree to which her arguments overlap & reinforce what I've been writing & saying in lectures & courses for several years. I may go more deeply into the science of & evidence about climate change than she does, but she adds some very important - even crucial - elements to the argument, notably the "what do we do about this" part.
Here are two of the most profound statements that I've read in her book so far, which taken together represent the two most important points with which I agree with Ms. Dumanoski, that contain the kernel of my views.
"A sober look at the radical uncertainty of the human future ... gives reason for real fear, the kind of primal fear that drives to the bone. But fear can be, must be, faced down rather than repressed or denied. The times are too dangerous to do otherwise (168)."As a person who speaks publicly & teaches courses about climate change & Gaia, who has attempted to alert communities to the true scale & severity of this issue for over three years, I can say with confidence based in repeated experiences that even discussing the climate change problem freaks out most people. Even more, an understanding grounded in systems sciences & geophysiology sooner or later (usually sooner) evokes fear, often mixed with grief, such that most simply don't want to hear about it, let alone study it or consider preparing for it.
"And in both its scientific and metaphoric aspects, this new view of Earth [Gaia theory] provides the foundation for a new cultural map that can guide us in the planetary era (238)."
Making that fear worse, there is a very high probability that we can no longer stop climate change even if we could muster the political & economic will to do so. (See the bottom of this post for a brief explanation of that assertion.) As Dumanoski correctly asserts, we are probably already past the point of irreversible climate change, & that what we are about to face is more rapid, extreme, chaotic & violent than the huge majority of people can even imagine. That view is well-grounded in evidence from researchers in the field which strongly supports a systems view of climate change - that it will be rapid, nonlinear & chaotic - some of the most important aspects of which Dumanoski explains.
Her book is the most effective tool I've found yet for helping convince people that the threat is real, serious & impending. She brilliantly suggests two important new wrinkles to the discussion.
First, that our preparations are not about "adaptation" to change, because we don't know that to which we must adapt. We can only predict large-scale change to a hotter, more violent climate, but we don't yet understand what conditions will exist where, nor do we comprehend the extreme variability inherent in such rapid changes - ranging from hot to cold, from wet to dry.
Therefore, she argues persuasively that what we must focus on is adaptability: an ability to roll with the punches, to plan for multiple contingencies, to deal with what ever comes. Her suggestion is persuasively backed by insights into the adaptability practiced by our paleolithic ancestors during the extremes of the ice ages, variation characterized by as much change in a single decade as human civilizations have experienced only over thousands of years.
Second, as reflected in her second quote above, she argues persuasively in chapter 8 that an important part of the human survival strategy is to get to know Gaia, both scientifically & metaphorically. That goal is, indeed, emerging this academic year as the central theme of Euglena Academy: we are a school of Gaia, to help our community understand it on both of those levels.
For example, in winter term, I will offer a new introductory course about Gaia theory. (We attempted to offer it this term, but found too little interest in it to make it fly ... yet.) You'll find a brief course description along with scheduling details on the academy site, & a longer essay about that course here.
With every chapter of Dumanoski, I become more convinced that this is not only a life changer, it's also one of the most important books written so far in the 21st century.
However, the kind of changes that she espouses threatens comfortable lifestyles & even world views, motivating collective denial about the scale & severity of the problem. Simply put, many are afraid of climate change because it threatens the stability of civilization, even "the good life" for many. Therefore, instead of acknowledging the crisis & beginning to plan for survival, they try to stop it.
Case in point 1: I recently received mail from a local climate activist group encouraging me to come to their meeting to write letters to "protect the climate". The implication is that if we write our "leaders" (or to media), politicians will be more likely to pass legislation that will stop climate change & allow us continue living as we have without preparations for adaptability. No mention of discussions about preparations for survival.
Case in point 2: Last Saturday, I participated in Eugene's (OR) Climate & Energy Action Plan Kickoff, an all day event intended to begin a community level process of dealing with those two linked issues. While the event was another noble effort, organized & guided by the city's capable Energy & Climate Coordinator, Matt McCrae, it was sadly under attended (less than 100 for the morning session, dwindling to less than 20 by 5 pm) & focused on ways to stop climate change. Some discussion ensued in small group discussions about preparedness, but from my perspective, the main focus was on stopping it. Further, it's not clear to me that most participants really understood the true nature of what we face in terms of scale, speed & severity.
Case in point 3: An international climate movement - 350.org - has emerged, & includes climate luminaries like Bill McBibben & James Hansen. Their intentions are noble, & even necessary - we must do everything we can to slow climate change.
However, their implicitly stated goal - "to rapidly return to 350 ppm this century" - is unrealistic & misleading, grounded in ignorance of the climate system. Explaining why it is unlikely that we can return to 350 ppm in this century, or even prevent a rise to 450 ppm or above even with 0 carbon emissions from humans, is an essay in itself, or better a 2 hour lecture/discussion. (I'm ready when you are. Again, for a brief explanation, see the bottom of this post.)
Most importantly, attempts like 350.org that focus entirely on stopping heating & climate change contribute to postponement of preparations at personal, community & regional levels. Their web site lacks any reference to preparing for large-scale climate change. Their logic: If we can stop it, we don't have to prepare for it. IMO, that's dangerous thinking. Dumanoski agrees. Her book is about preparedness.
Again, as always in the past, I reiterate that we should do all in our power to slow or mitigate changes. But we are fools if we don't simultaneously put as much time, effort & money into preparations for inevitable changes.
As I've said repeatedly over years, what concerns me most is not climate change per se. I'm a mountaineer & desert rat. I've faced extremes of heat, cold & storm in very wild & exposed places, from the floor of deserts during summer to high country above 11,000' when snow flies. I know food & water will be severe problems, but I know how to live on little of both.
No, it's not climate change itself that I fear. My concern is social anarchy resulting from community-level unpreparedness for large-scale, catastrophic climate change. That is, I fear unprepared people, panicked by large changes because they didn't see it coming, more than climate change itself.
If communities are really ready with preparations grounded in a clear understanding of what we face - that Dumanoski lays out so clearly in her chapter 4 (& Fred Pearce expands upon so well in his book With Speed & Violence) - then the changes will have a lesser impact.
But, again, we are not focusing on preparations. Those few who are paying attention at all are still focusing almost entirely on "stopping it", not preparing for it. And again, the large majority of people do not yet even fully understand the problem, & therefore cannot possibly solve it. (IMO, it is impossible to solve a problem that one doesn't understand.)
Worse, most people simply aren't paying attention at all.
This post is going to be an evolving review of Dumanoski's book, to be developed as I continue to read, study & explore this book. Eventually, I'll turn it into an essay for posting to the academy web site, or maybe even become part of a book chapter.
Life just keeps getting more interesting.
And we ain't seen nothin' yet.
Please stay tuned ...
________________
A nutshell summary of why we can no longer stop climate change, even if governments can muster the political & economic will to make sufficient efforts which will require cutting emissions much more than 50% immediately (which, IMO, is extremely unlikely).
- CO2 has a residence time in the atmosphere measured in centuries, such that even if we stop producing carbon emissions today, what's up there already will remain - it's not going to magically fall out on it's own, & we do not have the technology to scrub it out. It will continue to heat Earth for at least another century.
- Humans are not "in charge" of the climate system; it has a "life"of its own. Specifically, positive feedback processes (those that do not reverse trends but rapidly accelerate them) are already kicking in insuring that heat & carbon loads will increase: melting polar ice will no longer reflect sunlight; dark ocean underneath the ice will absorb heat; melting permafrost & methane clathrates are spewing methane at record levels; forests are beginning to transition from carbon sinks to carbon sources; & most importantly, the oceans are undergoing massive changes due to their heating, which is driving marine phytoplankton (algae) towards the poles, reducing their ability to cool the planet through their role in cloud production & carbon sequestration (far more important than terrestrial plants).
0 comments:
Post a Comment