Global heating & climate change: hoax or gritty reality?

I've been engaged in several substantive discussions & debates in my community about climate change.

This post summarizes some of what I've learned about people's understanding of the issue & how they are relating to it ... or not.

Some of it is very positive.
Other parts concern me greatly.

Some of it just scares the crap out of me.

For example, it's finally becoming clear to me that:

• Many (most?) of the people debating this issue in the public media don't understand the basics of how science works, let alone the basic principles of systems sciences (required to understand climate change)
  
• Many seem to be incapable (or unwilling) to work on developing a required "big picture" view of the climate issue, attempting instead to analyze climate change from a traditional perspective of reductionism: focusing exclusively on the parts of the climate system (CO2 levels, fossil fuels, solar variation ... etc) instead of the entire global climate system as a functional whole. (Reductionism alone will not work here.)
  
• At least some are more interested in advancing conspiracy stories (e.g., a global movement of 1000's of scientists with a political goal of taking over the world) than they are in understanding the science involved. (Or at least, that's the tactic that they use to attempt to derail an open discussion based in good science)
  

Here's a partial list of people with whom I'm having ... um, conversations:

• A debate centered (for now) on the UO Daily Emerald web pages about a story that paper published this week, "A Global Farce", suggesting that "global warming" is a hoax. (Scroll down in the comments for that storypast 20 to find 3 posts by me.
  
  Update 1: a great new post on Real Climate addresses several of the "denial" arguments put forth by those featured in that Daily Emerald article. Much more about how to argue with skeptics - to debunk their misinformation - can be found at the Real Climate Wiki (RC Wiki).
  
  Update 2: Clearly there are some psycho-social factors preventing us from making significant headway on understanding and dealing with this issue.
  
  
• A discussion- at times debate - with a few EUG friends & associates who are naturalists (like me) about the projected evolution of forests during climate change, in particular where the forests of Earth will be by, say, 2050 & 2099.
  
  
• An ongoing Thursday course - Systems, Gaia & Climate - at Euglena based on chapters 1 - 4 of James Lovelock's The Revenge of Gaia. (This course will begin again in early January. Enrollment beginning now ... )
  
  
• Ongoing discussions with Euglena Academy's board of directors & advisers about a new Climate Adaptation Program to debut in 2009.
  
  
• In public discussions about climate at Cozmic Pizza on the first three Mondays of December at 6:30 pm. (See calendar to the right.)
  

IMO, climate change is the most important challenge that our species has ever faced. Period. It is more important than the current global financial crisis, "peak oil" issues, wars (individually or collectively) or any number of other issues being billed as the major headlines of the day in mainstream media. It will not only greatly affect the nature of civilization, it will change the course of human evolution. It will happen far faster than the majority of people yet understand, & it's scale will be the largest in 55 million years. It's impact is as yet nearly impossible to comprehend, because our species has never experienced anything like that.

Yet we must begin to try to comprehend, & take active, positive steps towards preparing for it instead of burying our heads in the sand. In fact, my greatest fear is NOT climate change per se. I'm a backpacker, mountaineer & desert rat. I have the tools, knowledge & skills necessary to survive in extreme environments as I have many times in my life. (I seem to have sought them out as a hobby & professional endeavor, but that's another story.)

Instead, what I fear is living in a community that doesn't see climate change coming & gets blindsided. (Translation: if Eugene, Oregon doesn't get it's act together about this issue in 2009, I'm outta here.)

This issue is simply too important ... no, crucial, urgent for us to allow rampant misunderstandings to prevail in the public discussion.

Thus, Euglena is developing a major new program for 2009: Climate Adaptation Program (ECAP), being designed to promote community discussions about the climate crisis & what to do about it (encouraging a wide diversity of positive community projects without forcing any one set of solutions on anyone).

More coming soon ... in my next post.

This could get interesting.
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Quoting Lovelock in The Revenge of Gaia:

We need, most of all, that change of heart and mind that comes to tribal nations when they sense real danger. Only then will we accept the hardships of fuel rationing and firm constraints that an effective defense demands. Our cause will be the defense of our civilization to ward off the chaos that might otherwise overtake us.