I dislike - sometimes even disdain - politics, at least the kind that is too often practiced in 21st century US, wherein candidates stretch truths, offer empty rhetoric, & sling ad hominem mud. IMO, that kind of politics - versus a more thoughtful political discourse - is one of the evils of the world. (I distinguish between "politics" & "statesmanship". We need the latter; we mostly get the former.)
Having admitted that, since it appears that kind of politics is a contemporary necessity, I'll hasten to congratulate Mr. Obama. To his credit, his communication is substantially more thoughtful & intelligent than average - even if too often lacking specifics - & so far, he is ostensibly more "statesman" than "politician". I'm delighted that Mr. Bush is leaving the house, & hope that he can avoid screwing up things even more on his way out. (From what I'm reading about oil drilling in UT, that hope seems slim.)
On a more positive note, I'm ... delighted & moved (now that it's sinking in) that we have our first black president. It's about time. (Next time, let's add more women to the ticket.)
However, I do not share the sense of exuberance that many feel about Mr. Obama's election in terms of his ability to "change" things. Admittedly, I'm jaded by decades of promises about "change". I've seen the same kind of excitement about a presidential election twice in my life: once for JFK (first Catholic president) & again for Reagan. (Was he the first actor president? Surely not.) I didn't vote for Reagan, but his supporters were as giddy & hopeful as Obama's are now. That hope was misplaced.
Obama faces unimaginably difficult challenges, as do we all. But our single greatest challenge - & the one that should be at the top of Mr. Obama's list of priorities - is climate change driven by global heating. If we do not successfully deal with that, then all other issues - the economy, war & peace, health care, education, ecosystem health ... - become either an order of magnitude more challenging or nearly moot. Climate change will be THE issue of the 21st century. It should have been the top issue in the 2008 election. It will change the course of not only civilization, but of human evolution.
Below, I'll comment on the inadequacy of Mr. Obama's pledge to address climate change. But first, some context.
Those who know me understand that I agree with James Lovelock (& top NASA climatologist James Hansen) that it is highly unlikely that humans can stop large-scale climate change now, even if we could muster the political will (& that will require from years to decades). Evidence is strong that we have passed critical threshold AKA "tipping point" for climate change, the "event horizon" beyond which we cannot stop our motor-less boat from going over the falls.
The reason? Numerous global-scale positive feedback processes have already engaged in the climate system, accelerating the change. Two of the most notable are:
- The melting Arctic ice cap: ice is white, reflects light, cooling a region. Ocean water under that ice is dark, absorbing light, heating the region faster.
- Thawing permafrost regions around the Arctic circle & thawing clathrates on the bottom of the Arctic ocean are releasing methane at alarming levels.
Furthermore, there are "lags" in the system insuring that even if we slam on the climate brakes, we will not stop instantly. For example, even if we stop emitting CO2 quickly - unlikely given national & international political & economic realities - what's in the atmosphere now there will remain for decades, continuing to heat us. Add to that the lag called "committed ocean heating" or "oceanic inertia": even after atmospheric gas composition stabilizes, the oceans will continue to heat for ~50 yrs.
There's also the thorny issue of aerosol cooling AKA "global dimming" leading to a temporary cooling caused paradoxically by burning fossil fuels.
(Come to a "tipping point" lecture for a detailed explanation of the argument in the last few paragraphs, plus other support for it. Next one scheduled: Friday, Nov 21, 6:30 - 8:30 pm at Euglena Academy, prelude to a weekend workshop - Climate Change 2 - about adaptation to climate change. Better yet, come join Euglena's Systems, Gaia & Climate course meeting on Thursdays from 6:30 - 8:30 pm at the academy. We're accepting new enrollment through Thursday, Nov 13.)
Contrary to popular opinion, climate changes are very rapid. Ice core studies conclusively demonstrate that major climate shifts - from ice age conditions to temperate - can occur in less than a decade, potentially in as little as 3 yrs. That follows from a basic principle of systems sciences: once a phase transition begins, complex systems like climate shift very quickly to new stable states with little hang time in between.
Those who are paying attention know that climate change has already begun & is accelerating. Within a few decades - by the middle of this century - we will still be living on Earth, but it will neither look nor feel like Earth. Our climate will be characterized as hot, chaotic, violent & extreme. By the end of the century, much of North America & Eurasia will likely become scrub & desert as forests migrate to the Arctic circle. (See The Revenge of Gaia, p. 61, fig 5.)
Thus, perhaps you'll understand why I'm not as satisfied as some with Mr. Obama's plan to address the climate crisis, described in this article thusly: "Obama has pledged to reduce U.S. emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and then a further 80 percent by 2050. To do that with the smallest economic impact, Obama favors a so-called cap-and-trade program."
Yes, that's at least an order of magnitude better than what we've heard from the White House for the last 8 years. At least he acknowledges that climate change is real & serious. His proposal is definitely better than nothing. It will at least help slow climate change; that counts.
But let's be realistic: it's too little too late to stop it. I agree with Lovelock: even if we reduce emissions by 80% immediately, we're still probably "going over the falls". (Ladies & gentlemen, the captain has turned on the 'fasten seat belt sign' at this time ....)
I'm more than willing to be wrong, & have said so publicly. But so far, no one has come close to convincing me that I am wrong by using any argument, let alone evidence or models published in professional scientific journals.
I've also said that we'd be fools not to do what we can to stop a climate flip, or at least slow it. But I'm not seeing much of that happening, so I'm less motivated than I might be if a critical mass of humans was making substantial efforts.
Therefore, just in case Lovelock is right, someone should inform Mr. Obama of the following (I volunteer to help) :
- He should strengthen & accelerate his emissions reduction strategy (& we know how politically tough that will be even in its current form);
- He should simultaneously & immediately begin to plan, coordinate & execute national & regional strategies for adapting to large-scale climate change that threatens to end civilization as we've known it. That should include plans for availability of water (much of the continental US will become deserts), food (agriculture is about to get much harder), shelter (remember: extreme, violent & hot), energy (especially conservation) & security. We should put equal time, effort & money into this component. Mitigation is not enough; we must also prepare for change.
And, IMO, the single most important thing we can do to get ready for it is to understand the issue using the best systems sciences available to us.
Of course, I live my life as a mountaineer & desert biologist who has survived difficult situations, including extreme weather conditions, because I was paying attention, watching for danger, & had the tools, skills & knowledge to get through. In short, I was prepared. Those experiences motivate & inform my approach to this issue: the greatest danger is NOT in the climate change per se. The greatest danger lies in not seeing it coming, & ,thus, not being prepared, then getting blindsided. Unfortunately, lack of preparedness characterizes the large majority of people today: most are clueless about the impending climate crisis & no where near prepared to adapt.
As Lovelock writes in The Revenge of Gaia:
Because we are tribal animals, the tribe does not act in unison until a real and present danger is perceived. This has not yet happened; consequently, as individuals, we go our separate ways while the ineluctable forces of Gaia marshal against us (10).When the SHTF, many who are not prepared will panic, & there in lies the danger. I am more concerned about social panic & criminal anarchy than about climate change per se. We - as individuals & communities - need to start paying attention, & make sure that we've got the tools, skills & knowledge to get through. If we do this right, we can also take very positive steps to be prepared as communities in a way that can concur economic benefit.
I'm trying to do my share to help educate our community about these issues. But I need help. So, we at Euglena are planning a bold new community education program for 2009 that will address both the systems science behind this crisis AND the many positive things (many with economic benefits) that can be done to prepare for large-scale climate change & (hopefully) slow it down to gain more time for preparations. (And, there's no reason that we can't have a good time while we do it.)
Should we have hope? Absolutely.
But if you hope for things to remain the same as they've been for a few decades - a comfortable climate along "economic growth" that will support the lifestyle that people in the US have had for the last half century - then, I'd suggest give it up.
However, if you hope for successful adaptation, living in voluntary simplicity (even if at times adventurously), finding contentment in things other than material consumption, living in communities that deeply value the health of our living planet, then ...
... yes, we can.
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